Trump remains at 46 percent support this week, unchanged from last
week. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz dropped 2 points from last week and
now has 28 percent support. Kasich has 19 percent support, up 3
points from last week. Kasich's rise, while modest, still gives him the
highest support he has had since the start of the tracking poll.
The poll was conducted online from April 11 to April 17 among
13,020 adults aged 18 and over.
For the most part, the demographics of the electorate have not played
a critical role in the Republican primaries this season. However, some
groups have been important to particular candidates. Trump, for
example, has done very well among those without college degrees.
This has important implications in the New York primary.
Nationally, 56 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners with an
education level of high school or less support Trump this week,
down 3 points from last week, according to the tracking poll. Cruz
gets 27 support among that group, and Kasich gets 11 percent
White evangelicals have also been an important group throughout the
primary season, making up 50 percent of Republican primary voters
so far. In New York, however, there are fewer white evangelicals
than the previous contests this year.
In 2008, white evangelicals made up 15 percent of the New York
Republican primary electorate, according to NBC News Exit Poll
results. Overall, Trump and Cruz have done well among white
evangelicals in the 2016 primary contests so far.
Trump has 44 percent support among white evangelicals in our
tracking poll this week. That number held steady from last week.
Cruz has 38 percent support among that group, down 2 points from
last week. Kasich got a boost among white evangelicals this week and
now has 16 percent support, up from 10 percent. The significant
difference in the number of white evangelicals in New York
compared to prior states could hurt Cruz, who has consistently done
well among white evangelicals.
While there was not a lot of change in the national numbers this
week, the changing composition of the electorate in every state
makes it important to examine key subgroups. The subgroups
important in Tuesday's New York Republican primary suggest that
Trump is poised to do well. Kasich's rise is also born out in our
national poll, and it will be interesting to see how this translates into
votes in the contest.
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was
conducted online April 11 through April 17, 2016 among a national
sample of 13,020 adults aged 18 and over, including 11,498 who say
they are registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability
survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take
surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an
error estimate of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points. A full
description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.
|Trump Leads, but Kasich
Support Reaches New High
Ahead of N.Y. Primary